The Art of Uncertainty: planning for a future that is hard to imagine – lecture by Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter

01 04 2026

Join us for a lecture by Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter organized by the Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies.

When: Monday, April 13, 2026, 15:00-16:30

Where: University of Warsaw, Krakowskie Przedmieście 26/28, Auditorium Maximum, Hall B

In today’s world of profound uncertainty — aptly described as the “conscious awareness of ignorance” — traditional decision-making frameworks often fall short. We can try and assess and evaluate probabilities for well-defined events, but when facing “deep” uncertainty, where we cannot even imagine all the possible futures, conventional methods of risk analysis become impractical.

First, humility requires maintaining openness to unanticipated events. Second, imagination allows us to envision potential futures, particularly adverse scenarios.    Finally, resilience enables recovery from unexpected shocks.

By cultivating imagination, humility, and resilience, we can better face an unpredictable future — not by eliminating uncertainty, but by developing the capacity to adapt and recover when the unexpected inevitably occurs.

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter FRS OBE is Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge and ISI Highly Cited Researcher. He is leading figure in the field of biostatistics, as well as risk assessment and communication. Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter was employed in the position of Winton Professorship of the Public Understanding of Risk from 2007-2018, and was chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication during the period 2016-2023. He was elected Fellow of the Royal Society in 2005, awarded an OBE in 2006, and knighted in 2014 for services to medical statistics. He was President of the Royal Statistical Society for 2017-2018, and has been a Non-Executive Director of the UK Statistics Authority since 2020.

Professor has given more than 500 talks on risk and statistics since 2007 to a huge range of audiences, including school students, university students, University of the Third Age, professional bodies, international conferences, and the civil service, including being a regular performer at science festivals (eg Cambridge, Cheltenham, New Scientist) and literary festivals (eg Hay, Glasgow, Oxford). He is also a regular media commentator on statistical issues, and was very busy over the Covid crisis. He wrote bestselling books The Art of Statistics (published in 2019), and The Art of Uncertainty (2024).

Apart from scientific career his highlights include appearing on Desert Island Discs in 2022, and in 2011 coming 7 th in an episode of BBC1’s Winter Wipe out. He was co-host of Climate Change by Numbers and host of Tails You Win: The Science of Chance on BBC4.